There’s another doom and gloom report out about the real estate market today. And just like most of the rest of them, it’s based on information that is months old.
I’ll give you that news now - and then I’ll tell you CURRENT news about the reality of what’s happening in the real estate world with a particular mega-money financial company.
According to CNBC:
The S&P/Case Shiller composite index of 20 metro areas fell 1.4 percent in April from March and slumped by a record 15.3 percent over the year.
Of course, if you read my very well-received post “Why The Media Is Giving The Royal Treatment To Old Housing News“, you already know why news from the S&P/Case Shiller index gets so much attention even though the data is always lagging my several months.
However, I have to admit that a positive lining was pointed out in this article:
Bigger declines of 2.0 percent in the month and 15.9 percent from April 2007 had been expected for the 20-city index, according to the median forecast of economists polled by Reuters.
So what we have here is that economists expected things to be worse than they actually were. Yet next month and for years to come, these same economists will be cited as authoritative, and it is their views that will be publicized in the national media, even though their rate of accuracy is so low that it would cause normal people like me or you to lose our jobs.
Here’s what CNBC is saying through this article –
- As of April, the real estate market is still declining, if you consider only the 20 cities that are factored into the Case/Shiller index
- Economists expected things to be much worse than was actually the case
But as it turns out, CNBC is sharing only a tiny part of the whole story - and the part they are sharing is the “doom and gloom” news based on data from months ago. But here’s what’s happening right now that paints a totally different picture:
A report this past Friday on MoneyNews indicates that Goldman Sachs - the venerable investment bank powerhouse - recently made a huge acquisition that is very telling about their opinion of the real estate/mortgage market:
Goldman’s recent acquisition of SIV Portfolio, known initially as Cheyne Finance, reflects the Wall Street firm’s belief that a bottom has been reached, or at least is close.
SIV, a $7 billion structured investment vehicle with headquarters in London, collapsed in August. Goldman’s purchase of the hedge fund portfolio for a restructuring demonstrates a growing optimism at the Wall Street firm.
Why does this matter? It’s because Goldman has its finger on the pulse of business - both in American and worldwide. Their reputation is unmatched in the investment banking business, particularly because they have been relatively unscathed by the mortgage meltdown and credit crisis.
My friend, factor in what’s actually happening now versus all of the news you hear. Real estate market news is generally always multiple months old by the time you hear about it, so I suggest you begin to temper the negativity you hear on the evening news with the news that’s actually happening right now in the financial world.
And right now, the news is getting much, much, much better. As always, your comments and questions are welcomed here at FreeRealEstateTraining.com. And I repeat my claim: Real Estate Investors, The Time Is Now!












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8 Comments So Far»
great thoughts and insight
You are so right about the negative news and it being outdated. There is a strong trend by the media to make things worse than they actually are. Their desire for high ratings outweighs the truth and current data. This website is a breath of fresh air!!!
We are in the best investment we will ever see in our lifetimes
Thank you for all you do
Jere Neumann
Spot on, Bryan. The time is now - you just have to not let yourself get sucked into the negativity.
If you look at average values nationwide right now, yes, they’re down a good bit from a couple of years ago. But (reality check) if you go back just a little further & compare today’s average values to 2000, we’re still quite a bit “up”.
Hmmmmm…
…jp
The Case/Shiller index by nature is a rear view look. It is because the media has this myopic vision that gives us(investors)such a
lead time for potential profit compared to the uninformed.The gov.-may- soon pass a bill
that would give 1st time homebuyers(of foreclosures) up to $8,000 credit…fuel to the fire.It’s looking good to me fellow r.e.brothers.
You’re absolutely correct! The media is driving the panic in the RE markets and the financial markets. Thanks for the article!
Bryan:
I applaud your opinion, everyone has one,
however, if you base your opinion on the
same statistical foundation as the others,
your simply looking at the other side of the
same coin.
What statistical foundation are you referring to? I based my assertions on what’s actually happening right now. Much easier that way, don’t you think? — Bryan Ellis
Read “The Creature From Jekyl Island”, G.
Edward Griffin or listen to Ron Paul or many
others who have insights into the REAL truth
about what is happening (and has happened
in the past before already) - you will see
that it is the government and the Federal
Reserve who has caused this debacle… and
you will also see that it is going to get
a whole lot worse, not better, before it’s
all over.
Your assumption that I haven’t read “The Creature From Jekyll Island”, “Secrets Of The Temple”, etc is simply incorrect. Sure the Fed has some culpability in this - a lot of it. Very bad fiscal policy in the late 1990’s is the direct source of the credit crisis we face now. But does that lessen the responsibility of individuals to behave rationally? I think not. — Bryan Ellis
Does that mean we don’t invest? No. It just
means we invest with the facts firmly in
hand, not opinions from every direction.
What are you responding to? I’ve recommended that people should be investing right now. — Bryan Ellis
How many investment properties do you
currently own or control Bryan?
Hmmm - I could tell you the answer to that, because all financially wise people broadcast their assets to the world at large, don’t they? Of course we DON’T! But I am curious about your motivation for asking that question: What business is it of yours? — Bryan Ellis
Also… as a side note, your understanding
of land trusts is extremely limited and you
might benefit yourself and your readers
by heading over to ******* and
downloading ****** free info… you miss
the mark there by great margins by
putting all trusts into a single category.
I’m very familiar with the content to which you refer. And the problem with it is that it’s too complicated and of questionable reliability. I actually invited the expert to whom you’re referring to write a guest column about his solution, but instead he offered to sell me his program. Hmmmm. That’s why I stick with my “limited” - albeit legally proven - approach to land trusts. — Bryan Ellis
As intelligent as you seem to be, you would
be of better service to us if you would do
your homework first… on both of these
topics.
You’re right. I’ll make it a point to run everything by you in the future before I consider my own experience. (Dripping sarcasm) — Bryan Ellis
Your spreading of optimism is just as dangerous
as those spreading the doom and gloom.
Until that statement, I assumed you were merely a conspiracy theorist. But my opinion of you just dropped. Optimism is a fundamental requirement of success. You can’t win if you don’t expect to. Feel free to continue in the pessimistic style you clearly prefer, but I just won’t do it. Particularly not when the facts don’t support pessimism. — Bryan Ellis
Intelligence is the key… do your homework,
be ethical in all of your dealings, speak
of what you know not of what your opinion
is… we’ll all be better served.
Thanks for your comments. I guess we’ll have to let all of the thousands of readers of FreeRealEstateTraining.com decide for themselves whether this is a valuable resource. — Bryan Ellis
I, too, think that optimism is a fundamental requirement of success, but I view the required optimism with a slightly different take–that of realism. This man made billions (that’s billions…with a B) by correctly anticipating the collapse of the real estate bubble.
Trader Made Billions in Subprime — John Paulson Bet Big on Drop in Housing Values
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB120036645057290423.html
He reasoned, in essence, “I see sheer chaos up ahead. [pessimistic] The real estate market is going to utterly collapse. [pessimistic] Gloom and doom will be everywhere. [pessimistic] BUT! I’m going to capitalize on it.”
Now THAT’S optimism!
Acknowledge gloom and doom. Figure out a way to make it work for you.
That’s reasonable advice. How do you do this for yourself? — Bryan Ellis
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