In an evening interview on March 30, 2010 on CNBC, Elizabeth Warren, head of the Congressional Oversight Panel in charge of overseeing TARP stated that about half of all commercial real estate (CRE) loan will be underwater by the end of 2010. More disturbing, she added, is the fact that most of these “souring” loans are concentrated in regional banks, with 2,988 regional banks at a critical concentration of these loans at this time.

When these problematic loans start coming due — and not being paid — in the next three years, many of these banks could crumble under the pressure, ultimately creating a second economic downturn. However, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, believes that the problem can be managed.

In the same interview edition, Geithner said this: “Commercial real estate’s still going to be a problem for the country, but we can manage through this process.”

He declined to say exactly what the process was, but it appears to involve the government becoming involved and taking stake in commercial lending in a similar way to how residential lending has been handled recently in order to encourage loan modifications rather than calling loans due or accelerating them. In fact, a number of advisory firms have sprung up to help lenders and borrowers with the modification process. While these firms may mean well, I fear that some of them may be more interested in the large sums of money to be made just for negotiating a modification than in the viability of the modification itself, if these firms have anything in common with many of the residential loan mod agencies of the past few years.

This “temporary” management may be a viable solution, but, regardless, the next few years are going to be tough even if the situation is kept under control. However, those tough times, as always, will indicate opportunity for investors who understand how to work within the system to help troubled borrowers and lenders reach situations that will enable both parties to continue to coexist in the market rather than disappearing entirely. And, as always, when the times are tough, there will be buyers out there eager to scrape up the pieces and turn them into opportunities.