Following over a month of monitoring and researching the impact of the Gulf Coast oil leak, Housing Predictor has released a forecast for the values of homes “along the immediate path of the Gulf Coast,” reported NuWire Investor this week[1]. The analysts predict that homes will decline at least 30% in value, and that thousands and thousands of homes could enter foreclosure as a result of this crisis.
Given that the Gulf Coast has already experienced property deflation on the immediate coastline averaging 65%, it is ill-prepared to take another hit. And that does not even factor in the possibly permanent – and certainly long-lasting – effects on the tourist and vacation-homes industries in the area.
What do you think should be done about this problem? Is there any hope for the Gulf Coast?
[1] http://www.nuwireinvestor.com/articles/real-estate-in-path-of-oil-spill-could-lose-significant-55276.aspx
There is only so much beach front property anywhere in the country. Sooner or later, the oil spill problems will be resolved. And since it has been proven over and over again that Americans have very short memories, people will flock back.
An investor with a long term horizon can stand to profit greatly.
I’m in CA and it happens all of the time here. Sure, earthquakes, fires and landslides are far less detrimental than what’s happening in the Gulf but people forget and areas like San Diego county that were devastated by fire about 3 years ago are all being rebuilt.
Bryan,
I am starting to think that these media groups and forecasting
entities have a death wish for us on the Gulf Coast.,
I live on the Pensacola Beach part of the Gulf Coast, and we are selling short sales, as if nothing has happened.
We are receiving an offer tomorrow on one of or Handyman Specials.
The thing that these groups forget, is that WE who live here everyday, still NEED a house to live in. Our military who come and go here, still NEED a house to live in, so somebody has to buy and sell houses.
Also, another observation is that the RE Investors who POACH on us after the Hurricanes, will be back, because they will be hearing reports such as this, and will want to grab the Deals here, which is a good thing.
So, What I ASSUME these groups are referring to, is the Out of State buyers who come here for a vacation, and love it, and decide to move here… yes, that is probably going to dry up, but those of us who live, play, worship, and work here, still will buy and sell.
My thoughts: If you want a GREAT DEAL on our Gulf Coast, make the RE Investors like us who LIVE here, and LOVE IT here, make us an offer, and grab some very cheap Investment Property, and rent it out… because remember, People still NEED a roof over their heads.
One other thing that we NEED here on Gulf, we NEED your PRAYERS for those that have and will lose their livelihoods due to the fishing restrictions etc,,. they will go into foreclosure, and my Heart goes out to THEM!
thank you
God Bless
I think the lenders really need to start looking at Loan mods and other ways to keep these properties from being lost. The rule of thumb to this point has been “If you lease your property or second home out even 50% of the year, it does not qualify for a loan mod of any kind. Their will be many new foreclosures because the lender have not been working to prevent them. It is time for the lenders of all of these beach front properties to take a long hard look before we start all over just like in ’09
Neither the property owners nor their respective lenders are at fault here, so neither of them should bear any portion of the responsibility of this mess. BP created the mess; they should be held responsible for all of the consequences. They should pay for any and all clean up. They should cover the payments for all of those mortgages (or buy those mortgages and modify the terms [no payments and no interest until the clean up is finished]). They should also pay for the efforts to replenish/restock the wildlife, plants (including that $1+million/sqft Johnson’s seagrass along the FL coastline), and other organisms.
To Elisa: You have my prayers, and you are right on track with your comments. Keep your head up, and keep investing. We are all pretty much already at the bottom. It can only get better for all of us. I say this from the heart, and I don’t live in your part of the country.