More very positive news about the housing market today:
The National Association of Realtors announced today that pending sales of previously owned U.S. homes rose in April, despite the widespread expectation of a decline. In fact, Reuters surveyed a bunch of economists whose concensus was an expected decline of 0.5%.
What ACTUALLY happened? Pending home sales INCREASED by 6.3%.
My friend, that’s a HUGE, HUGE difference. If you were in error by that much at your job, you’d be fired. But not these economists. They’re routinely WAY off of the mark - and they are the ones who are making the dire predictions about the future of our economy and housing markets.
My suggestion to you: Ignore the “expert economists” for now and go with your own gut feeling. Take the “Walmart Test”": Go to Walmart and see if people are shopping there. Go to a building supply company like Home Depot or Lowe’s and see what’s happening.
Don’t believe the hype, my friends. The economy is still soft, that’s certain. But this is certainly the best real estate buying opportunity since the S&L debacle of the 1980’s. If you don’t get in on this market while the opportunity is there, you’ll hate yourself for it very soon. Think of it this way: It’s as if real estate prices right now have been backed up by about 5-10 years. Real estate investing makes a lot of sense right now, since property is on sale.
Back to those economists - Sometime soon I’ll tell you why I think that they always make predictions with a negative leaning. In the mean time, tell me what you think: Why does the media focus significantly more attention on negative news than on positive reality?
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4 Comments So Far»
I’m not so sure about improvement in the economy yet. Why are you so optimistic about it?
Hi Ernest - there is a lot of very positive evidence I see - both statistical and anecdotal. Here’s an anecdotal one: A very significant portion of the “negative” news about the real estate market that has been reported in the last 30-60 days has been composite information about last year and the first quarter of this year. Why? The negative news has been decreasing and lots of positive news has become available. But this doesn’t do as well in the news business, so it gets less attention. Go backwards in my blog a bit and you’ll see other positive news items that back me up. And I’ll share more in the future, too. — Bryan Ellis
“Why does the media focus significantly more attention on negative news than on positive reality?”, you ask?
1. Because it is “Media”, not “News Media”; (Long ago, when I was young, actual news items provided the Who, What, Where, When and Why of the story. That is no longer taught as necessary in Journalism schools, as it gets in the way of furthering the Media’s agenda. I challenge anyone to show me a news article or broadcast story with all those components);
2. Bad “news” sells;
3. It’s an election year. The media is supporting the politicians trying to convince us that The Sky is Falling, and of course if we will simply elect them, they will bring about Great Change and create many new government programs to relieve us of the need to be personally accountable for our own lives. They will gladly take over and make all those tough decisions for us (they know we’re not smart enough on our own, after all, being the bitter gun-toting, God-fearing simple folks that they say we are). In return, they fully expect us to be dependent upon them to the extent that we keep voting for them in perpetuity.
News Business? Extinct.
A real news story would not twist itself inside out to take positive news and spin it, as if by magic, into a negative.
End of rant; Next question, please.
“The most outrageous lies that can be invented will find believers if a man only tells them with all his might.”
Mark Twain
The news is just that, news. It is what we are being told by the media.
Reality is, my daughter in law is a Realator in San Jose, CA and just moved there in the last 6 months and has now 2 offers in escrow and presented 2 offers this last week end.
I am not saying that the market is coming back but it is not as bad as the media says.
Hello . I would like to wholesale R.E. on a national basis! What training or course would you advise?????????????
Hi Sherwin - That is a GREAT question. I decided to write a whole post to answer it. Check it out here: Wholesale Real Estate Investing: How To Do It Nationwide. — Bryan Ellis
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